Friday sums up the week; BLAH. Oh there were a couple moments last week of ‘uncertainty’ with a big dip or so, but all in all the week was just plain dull and little movement. The President fired the FBI director, the “resistance” (Democrats) went ballistic, the French welcomed a new President, their right wing went ballistic, earnings were announced and the markets did what? YAWNED. It seems that for something to really get the markets to wake up and capture investors/traders interest it is going to have to something REALLY BIG. What could it be? (see below) As noted in the headline, you can’t make a case or spin a tale when nothing happens.
To review, Friday was a very slow day with the three major averages drifting. The Dow lost 23, the S&P dropped 3.5 and the NASDAQ Composite gained 5. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
For the week, the DOW lost a half a percent (-110 points) closing at 20,896.61, the S&P lost 0.3% to 2,390.90 BUT the NASDAQ rose 20.47 points (0.3%) to 6,121.23. Oil picked up about 4.5% on the week, 10 yr treasuries settled at 2.34%, gold was unchanged at $1228 BUT bitcoin charged ahead by +$183 to $1777, even after dropping sharply Friday. The KBW NASDAQ index (KFTX) lost 0.06% (6.91 points) to finish at 1153.23.
So, as I mentioned above, news is certainly NOT moving markets right now. The BIG BIG thing to watch out for is market action alone. What do I mean by that? The movement you can’t explain is the one the ‘kills you’ because you don’t know why. With a news event EVERYONE can explain the move and adjust. Bad news? Buy the dip as the robots are wired to do. Good news, sell the rally cause that’s what robots do. The markets start sliding ON NO NEWS, what do you do? You don’t know the reason so you can’t react. Robots don’t know what to do. The “NO NEWS MOVES” are the worst and start for no apparent reason.
We are close to that. Don’t be caught trying to reason because it won’t matter. Sell in May and go away and don’t get caught.