Early Slump, Slow Rise, and Snooze

kftx
New day, same movie. Early selling had the major averages down a fair ‘chunk’ when the dip buyers came in and steadied the markets. The 3 major indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite) managed to settle with small losses after snoozing most of the afternoon. Seen this movie before and we may see it again in the next few days. Dips or rallies finish with minor changes and causing frustration among traders. BUT, a couple sneaky changes are appearing that should be noted.

First, the bullishness is muted and the rallies fail while the dips, although being bought, just feel like the buyers are “playing defense” to keep things from really deteriorating. There is no “offensive” to rock markets higher as in the past. The market is exhausted. Second, if you haven’t noticed (shame on you), interest rates are DECLINING (10 year treasury under 2.3%) as defensive positioning blooms (sneaky robots quietly moving money), and third which surfaced today, the VIX moved (AND HELD) up sharply higher and is now over 15. Again, the sneaky robots quietly moving money in a stealth manor. Once more, the markets are exhausted and are slowly weakening.

Remember the old market adage “sell in May and go away”? Well, if you don’t have your travel reservations you better get them now (I would kind of stay away from United Airlines. They get really cranky). The robots are front running May since their artificial intelligence is anticipating YOUR move.

Now, focusing on the fintech sector, the KBW NASDAQ fintech index KFTX limped up slightly to 1120.08, up 1.40 points (+0.12%). Its a weak sector. Advance/declines today showed 26 stocks up, 23 down and 1 unchanged. Stocks in the 50 issue index that moved 2 points and/or 3% are:

ADS  -9.32  (238.34)  -3.76%
LC  +.18  (5.55)  +3.35%
TREE  +2.65  (122.05)

Moving forward we are entering the ‘infamous’ earnings season. The next few days (Friday is a holiday) and the next few weeks will certainly make some individual stocks react to earnings AND forward guidance. If you have inside info on stocks you will have an edge. If you don’t, just go to Vegas. Have a super evening.