Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
Slow and steady. Today was another quiet day in the markets and the bulls loved it. Capital flow was anemic at 82%. The S&P started the session up about 8 handles and rallied further for the first hour of trading. We topped out up about 15 handles and gave back most of those gains over the rest of the day. There’s no smoking gun news item to explain the morning’s bullishness nor is there a quality explanation for the erosion of the tape.
The best explanation so far is that Treasury yields started climbing when the S&P peaked and continued to climb over the day, contributing to equities sagging.
If that’s true, that’s nice to know but the question as to *why* the treasury curve shifted higher has no satisfying answer.
So we’re left scratching our heads regardless. Fortunately Wall Street has faced these situations before and we’ve designated it as ‘noise.’
On the horizon, things look like they will continue to be quiet, from a catalyst standpoint, so we should be in for more noise. That suggests small moves. Maybe the bulls keep their winning streak going (S&P up 6 in last 7 sessions). Or maybe the bears get their turn.
Either way, I expect small-ball until something significant crosses the tape.
Maybe that’s the nonfarm payrolls data coming June 1 or maybe it’s the next FOMC rate decision on June 13th. The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 bip hike at that meeting by the way.
Anywho, the point is that when it comes to *foreseeable* catalysts, we’ve got to get to June before we get any. Looks like the summer doldrums are starting early. Actually, they’ve already begun.
See you tomorrow,