Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
Sorry about the late email…. Forgot to push send.
First official summer Friday. Today was quiet. Overseas markets rallied small today. We rallied small today. Why? I don’t know. Probably because we fell yesterday.
In the absence of significant developments, the bulls and the bears seem ossified in their beliefs and they are essentially trading blows in the short run. The tape isn’t actually going anywhere though. Trading is little choppy but not so volatile as to scare investors out of their existing views.
I continue to think we’re staying in this environment until we get some big event/news.
There’s nothing really obvious on the horizon that could qualify as a big catalyst.
The final estimate for US Q1 GDP releases on Thursday (2.2% est vs 2.2% prior) has the smallest chance to rattle the market but I’m reaching. It’s the 3rd revision/estimate so it’s very unlikely to change much. In two weeks, we’ll get the monthly labor data. That will be more significant to markets but it has to be a helluva outlier to shake investors out of their existing views.
I don’t see anything *scheduled* that will alter the state of trading.
That leaves bolt-from-the-blue events.
Tariff stuff is a good candidate although we can’t predict the when or the good/bad aspect of the next headline…. So what’s the point?
There’s always the potential for a surprise war, or earthquake, or pandemic, or flying saucer landing…
But those risks aren’t any different this week than they’ve been historically, so there’s nothing for us to anticipate/do.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday.