Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.
Dull, but down. The bears might be getting some ideas if the tape keeps dropping. I caution them on that. The news of the day was uninteresting again. The softness of the session wasn’t caused by any particular catalyst. Overseas markets fell some and our market was down small in the premarket. This is the usual pattern by the way. The moderately notable difference today is that the dip-buyers didn’t/couldn’t turn things around *completely.* They halted the pain in the morning though. The S&P was down about 20 handles at the low and the bulk of the damage was repaired by lunch.
At some point, as long as we don’t experience a big news event, the dip-buyers will do what they do and that will be that.
So if you’re a bear, you’re in a race. A race between bad news breaking and when the dip-buyers collectively say “enough” and the rip the tape towards new highs.
The foreseeable news on the horizon doesn’t look to have much risk to it however.
So it’s a race between bolt-from-the-blue bad news and the greed impulse of the dip-buying community.
I don’t see a good way to play this moment in time. I still have all my recent concerns and think that the longs are wrong… that said, I fear getting in their way.
See you tomorrow,
PS. There’s a bombshell Op-Ed in the NY Times that just came out. The markets haven’t reacted but depending on how the public receives this thing, a significant market reaction could result.