The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 6/12/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own

Trump/Un summit.  The summit happened.  Hands were shook and smiles were flashed.  Something was signed.  Now it’s over.  The markets didn’t react significantly to the big political event in Singapore.  Is this the beginning of something meaningful?  Is it pure theater?

Nobody knows yet and investors aren’t leaning significantly one way or the other.  The S&P climbed some today, and like yesterday gave back most of the intraday gains in the afternoon.

I don’t think that means anything but it’s interesting that there are some bearish forces out there, making moves later in the day.  I wonder if they’ll keep trying or give up.

It’s kind of a pointless question though because I think we’ll be getting a catalyst shortly.  After the close today, we learn the verdict in the AT&T/Time Warner merger case.  If the merger is approved, it’s expected to be generally bullish for M&A activity going forward and vice versa.  We’ll see soon.

Tomorrow the FOMC is almost universally expected to hike the Fed Funds Target Rate at least 25 bips.  If the hike is greater than 25 bips *or* the language is more hawkish than anticipated, the bears are going to eat.

That’s about it.  We have a big M&A verdict and the Fed on the immediate horizon.  Those events will drive the tape.  Everything else will be trivial.

See you tomorrow,