Markets Exhausted. Do Earnings Matter Anymore?? Gutsy Trade??


Fed does NOTHING, markets join them. As expected the Fed left interest rates unchanged, barely changed their comments and left the building. Markets hung around for that news (??), waited for some earnings and left the building. And as soon as I finish this, I too am leaving the building. Just before everyone took off the major averages (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite) closed slightly mixed with the DOW up a 8 points, the S&P down 3 points and the NASDAQ off 23 points (gasp). After the close a couple of the “anointed” stocks (Facebook, Tesla) reported earnings and all are down. Good or bad, earnings are so yesterday. The robots (and the world) are long these stocks and are “lightening up” as they say. Or, is it MAY? It is and they are selling. Not hard yet, but SELLING.

So, lets look again at “reality” and here’s what we see. Crude oil under $48 (that’s not anticipating strong growth), interest rates hanging around 2.3% (10 yr. treasury) not anticipating growth, car sales slowing, extreme bullishness (seemingly concentrated in about 8 stocks) AND now stocks selling off on good earnings. Oh, market hasn’t gone down yet? Must not matter and be OK, right? SELL in MAY and go away.

Now, in the OTHER fintech sector which doesn’t include those 8 anointed stocks (the FANG + 4) which is represented by the KFTX we see that a double top has been put in at the 1158 area on the index. And, without those “helper” stocks, the KFTX closed down 9.02 points (0.78%) to finish at 1148.66. In a big breadth turnaround, the decliners whipped the advances 40 to 8 (2 unchanged).

NFP’s on Friday (190K est vs 98K prior) and unless its a BIG surprise probably a non-event. French election on Sunday and unless Le Pen wins another non-event. In other words, the anticipated “good” news is in. SELL in MAY and go away. But have a nice evening first.

One last thing; Want a gutsy trade with big upside? Long BITCOIN/Short S&P. Oh yeah!