How to make a ‘down’ week look good? Do some calm program (robot) buying the last two days of the week to make sure investors/traders forget the big drop on Wednesday (oh, that big old sell off…….so three days ago) and cut the losses for the week. Forgot already. BUT, the major averages DID finish lower on the week with the S&P 500 (-0.4%) having its worst week in a month. The others (Dow -0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite -0.6%) followed BUT the 50 stock KBW Nasdaq fintech index (KFTX) inched up a teeny tiny bit (+0.01%). Crude oil jumped up to $50.33 in front of this weeks OPEC meeting and the 10 year treasury ticked lower to send yields to 2.243%. Gold added $27.00 ($1,255) AND Bitcoin rocketed up $175 to $1,953, another all time high (NOTE: its over $2,000 Sunday afternoon).
Now, while we’re on the subject can we change the subject now? (thanks Modest Mouse) All is not as smooth out in investing land as everyone thinks. Oh earnings are doing fine (and are set to zoom??) BUT keep in mind all the happy optimistic news may be in the market already. This could be as good as it gets. The risk/reward just is NOT here. A couple of percentage points to the upside (?) versus 15%-20% potential downside. Hmmmm, NOT my kind of trade. Without getting all lengthy and wordy with what could go wrong (yeah, it can) let me just mention a few things and you can dwell on them.
- China……………….slowing with huge debt issues
- Brazil……………….corruption and political system in chaos
- Venezuela…………don’t overlook this. Civil war very possible
- Italy…………………just ’cause France stayed EU positive doesn’t mean the Italians will
- North Korea………scariest of all – a ruthless leader with million people army and scary toys
- U.S…………………..who knows – political parties toying with our democracy, all for power
- Huge asteroids….could be heading toward earth (Kidding. Just had to put that in here)
So, risk/reward? Risk 15%-20% to maybe make 2%?? Yeah la la la la la la, I can’t hear you. If I put my head in the sand I can’t see you either. Lots to chew on and we are in very UNSTABLE times here.
Oh, have a great rest of the weekend. Heading to the pool.