By Bill Taylor, Contributor/Fintek Capital
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, & Gold, using the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference.
11/15/18 Closing Prices:
Bitcoin: $5,406.86 (-$732.04)
Ether: $172.73 (-$19.39)
Gold: $1,213 (+$2)
DJIA: 25,289.27 (+208.77)
S&P 500: 2,730.20 (+28.62)
Nasdaq Comp: 7,259.03 (+122.64)
Trading Summary Notes for Thursday, 11/15/2018
- This is a very big crash in the crypto sector. BITCOIN plunges through $6,000 support to rack up a 12% loss. ETH drops through support areas and settles 10% lower
- Could this “surprise” plunge be the capitulation that signals the end of the crypto bear market? Have investors ‘thrown in the towel’ (sold out)? It ‘feels’ like it but only time will tell
- Reasons? Here are some;
- Everyone is blaming the hard fork in Bitcoin Cash for uncertainty and selling other (BTC & ETH) in sympathy.
- After holding in tight ranges just above long term support ares ($6,000 in BTC; $200 in ETH), new buyers ‘panicked’ as momentum took a bearish turn and stop orders were executed.
- One OVERLOOKED theory (like mine) is that over the last several weeks banks around the globe ceased dealing in USD’s for crypto funds and exchanges. Seems U.S. regulators have some “new rules” that allow them to take action against entities anywhere that accept dollars (like, offshore funds)
- So, where now? (from someone who did not see this……turn myself in). If this is the capitulation stage the risk reward for BITCOIN and ETH is a lot better. Lets say $5,000-$5,500 to buy BTC and $155-$165 for ETH
- Nothing fundamentally has changed EXCEPT investor fears
- GOLD, or GOLD GOLD GOLD. Love it. Interest rates have actually eased slightly as has the dollar
- Nervousness about geopolitical events, inflation and even higher interest rates will subside. GOLD’S upside still appears intact……….buy the dips
- GOLD upside target $1,350. Yes, that’s $1,350. Expect some “backing and filling”
- Still long term bullish on BITCOIN, GOLD and short term bullish on ETH
CURRENT TRADING POSITION: LONG BITCOIN, ETH and GOLD
Bill Taylor is Managing Partner at Fintek Capital & a frequent contributor