The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 10/19/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Limping along.  The bulls made their move today in response to yesterday’s drop.  Premarket futures were modestly higher and the market opened up accordingly.  The day was quiet with respect to news and it was yet another session dominated by sentiment and intraday momentum/technicals.  Capital flow was a bit elevated at 116%.

The tape sagged over the course of the day and printed its lows around 2 PM (down 8 handles on the S&P).  The bulls of the morning went back to work and took equities into positive territory but it fell apart in the last 10 minutes.  The end result was a small win for the bears and a disappointing session for all the dip-buyers.

Baring a bolt-from-the-blue event this weekend, I fully expect the bulls/dip-buyers to try try again next week.  They aren’t done.

This is what they look at and they *still* assume the past will repeat itself.

*If* I’m right and *if* we are in the process of lowering the multiples in the market…

Then the struggle between the bulls and the bears isn’t going to end after two weeks.

There’s too much history here.  The longs/bulls/dip-buyers have too much success to flip their mindsets *without a major news event.*

So until that happens, expect bullish rips and bearish slides for apparently no reason.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.