The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 10/9/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Like yesterday.  US bond markets were open but they didn’t sink, they rallied small.  That may have been a little bit of a flight to safety however.  US equities were under pressure early and while the market went positive a few times during the day, the bears win small at the close.

There’s some talk about earnings guidance generally and that growth expectations from management this season is not going to be where the Street expects.  That’s still very much rumor and bearish wishful thinking at this point… but if it becomes the consensus perception in the market, we’re looking at a few percentage points of downside, at least.  Just to reiterate, this is rumor/misinformation at this point…

Anyway, earnings season is almost ready to get cooking.  We will see soon enough.

In general, we remain in a sensitized state.  Equity markets have the jitters and fear is slightly overcoming greed in the near term.  If rates continue to climb, expect more of the same.  The bulls need a big rally in Treasuries across the curve or some positive headline to change the current narrative.

See you tomorrow,