The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 11/27/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Dull win.  Overseas markets were slightly lower and US premarket futures were down in sympathy.  The S&P futures were off 10-20 handles depending on the time.  They climbed as we approached-regular hours trading and through the open.  The S&P was up on the session by a little after 10 AM.  The tape bounced around yesterday’s closing level for the bulk of the day and went slightly positive around 2 PM.  Bulls were able to hold onto the gains from then into the close.

It was a dull day but the bulls get two consecutive session wins.  That hasn’t happened since November 15th & 16th so there’s reason for longs to be happy/constructive.  There’s a new dip forming (potentially) because of these two wins so in terms of manipulating the sentiment of the market, that’s material.  The chart matters a lot in this environment.

News today was again immaterial.  President Trump did stir up trade worries with talk of potential tariffs (on iPhones was a new twist) but he also mentioned being hopeful for a resolution with China.  The overall effect on the market was insignificant but it did elevate trade issues to prominence again.  That was something that had been on the back burner for a spell.

Anyway, the market is looking for something to latch on to as a key catalyst for trading but just can’t find one.  Concern over the Fed is omnipresent although the coming Fed events aren’t that big.  There are a few speeches tomorrow (the Vice Chair’s speech being the most anticipated) and then Powell speaks Thursday to the Economic Club of New York.

The markets are really looking for a few dovish bread crumbs from those communications.

I expect mild bullishness if we get them and the opposite if we don’t.  I don’t think these speeches are going to be major catalysts.

They just happen to be the events ahead of us that have our attention at the moment.

See you tomorrow,