Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
Uninteresting. Trump announced that the US was withdrawing from the Iran deal a little after 2 PM today. The market reaction was minor. That news had leaked out earlier in the morning but even when the leak happened, the market didn’t really care. The whole thing was uninteresting (from a market-watching standpoint). Capital flow was light again. Flow was 87% today.
And here we are, still in the 2600/2700 trading range. What are we waiting for?
I wish I knew. The next Fed decision is June 13th and the expectation is for the next 25 bip hike to come then. It’s so expected though. The Fed Funds futures market is pricing that hike with 100% certainty! So even if the equity market is waiting for the next Fed decision…what’s the surprise going to be?
We’re in a stretch of time where the status quo looks very stable. Upcoming data releases shouldn’t shake up investors because they’ve been so well-behaved for the last two years. The numbers continue to suggest modest growth, which everyone expects. So what’s the surprise going to be?
There just don’t seem to be any events on the calendar with the potential to really surprise investors.
So we’re left to whip on sentiment and momentum and technicals until something *not* on the calendar surprises the heck out of all of us.
I wonder *what* that something might be and I wonder *when* it might show up.
We can let our imaginations run wild of course but that sadly won’t help us trade this current market.
See you tomorrow,