The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 6/15/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own

Boring summer day.  The market started down a little.  Tariff news stirred up some minor bearish vibes today and equities traded down small.  Dip-buyers repaired the damage from 2 PM on and we finished down small.  Ho hum.

The tariff stuff is almost completely insignificant as a catalyst at this point.  We are numb/accustomed to the back-and-forth.  This is either reasonable or dangerous.

Whether it’s one or the other is completely outcome dependent too.

What I mean is that if tariffs actually get levied and they lead to trade reduction and GDP drags, or a true trade war, our currently blasé attitude will be dangerous… but only in hindsight.

And if all this tariff business is bluster and it leads to new/modified agreements, our currently blasé attitude will be reasonable… but only in hindsight.

The market expects a clean positive resolution to the trade/tariff situation.

We’ll only find out months from now.  In the meantime, it’s summer and nobody’s worried about much.

See you Monday, have a great weekend, Happy Father’s Day,