The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 7/10/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own

Bulls <3 July.    The S&P is up about 2.7% in July so far.  The news released in July has been pretty trivial although the June nonfarm payrolls data (213k vs 195k est & 244k prior revised from 223k) was considered to be bullish.  I think that’s a fair interpretation but I don’t know if it explains (or should explain) the latest surge in equities.  Maybe I’m just too skeptical?

Regardless of the reason(s), July has been good for the longs.

Earnings season looms large and so we should have more meaty data and guidance shortly.  PepsiCo kicked things off with good beats and the stock climbed 4.7% today.  Maybe the optimists and the earnings season front-runners aren’t off their rockers?  PEP obviously delivered a rally after their earnings results so the upside case for earnings season reasonably exists.

JP Morgan’s results on Friday should get more attention from the broader market.  Maybe the results and stock reaction will inspire investors to speculate early with larger-than-recent capital flows also?

We’re in an odd stretch of trading and I don’t have a good feel for how to navigate it.  We’re in a news desert but the bulls control the tape.  This isn’t random noise.  We’re in a trend, a newsless trend.

How long will it last?

Beats me.  I’m not a fan of trends without identifiable catalysts, whether they be up or down.

See you tomorrow,