The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 8/17/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

FYI, I’ll be on vacation until August 29th.  I’ll be back with new Recaps then.

Return to summer.  There were no scary headlines today and investors tried their best to pretend it was just another lazy Friday in late summer.  They succeeded too.  Capital flow was light at 92% and while the morning was a little soft, the dip-buyers took advantage of the quiet day and pushed equities a little higher again.

This is a return-to-usual move and whether it’s merited or wishful thinking is debatable.  The present investor attitude is that everything is fine and the summer is back.  The S&P is almost where it was before Turkey’s crisis mattered.

Does that make sense to you?  It doesn’t make sense to me but it is what it is.

I don’t know whether the next shoe to drop is around the corner or not but I think it is silly for investors to price assets at the same levels today as they priced them before Turkey imploded a week ago.

The prevalent investor attitude is subject to change of course.  We’ve seen it swing significantly over the last week.  I think it’ll only take a new negative bit of news to drop the tape materially again.

Here’s the key part: that next negative bit of news is almost certain to come soon because Turkey *just blew up last week.*  Who in their right mind can think that all the bad news is out and discounted?

I don’t trust the recent rally.  I don’t think we should start a bear market either.  I just think that the downside is more likely in the short term.  I’m not a buyer.

See you in 12 days.

Have a great weekend,