The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 9/14/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Quiet finish.  The bulls won this week after the bears won the prior.  The S&P 500 is now back where it was two weeks ago so the dip has been officially bought.  Whether new highs are just around the corner or not is unclear.  The bulls’ enthusiasm to ramp the tape this time around doesn’t appear as strong as in the past.

Today’s news was important but uneventful.  Macro data preserves the solid growth narrative without introducing any new worries.  The one headline that moved the tape intraday was a Trump tariff news item.  Apparently he wants to go ahead with $200 billion of tariffs on Chinese trade.  These were announced a while ago but investors were hoping that the implementation wasn’t going to happen because we restarted trade discussions with China.  The S&P fell 10-15 handles on that news and recovered most of it over the rest of the session.  Investors obviously aren’t terribly concerned at the moment.

I continue to think that investors are waiting to hear from the Fed before ramping (or turning) the tape.  We’ll jog around for various reasons before the 26th but I don’t think we’ll go very far in a particular direction.  If the month of September ends up in the history books as a big winner or loser, it’ll be due to the moves in the last two and a half sessions.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday,