The Zigmont Report (Daily Market Recap for 9/28/18)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $12B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

Sleepy end of quarter.  Investors did next to nothing in the markets today.  We coasted through the session without much action.  The tape wandered through the morning from down 7 to up 7 without clear causes.  The afternoon was even more quiet and we finished flat on the day.  It was a whole lotta nothing today.  Treasuries did very little as well.  The only markets that were jumping were the commodity markets.  There’s drama in the oil space and crude continues to climb.  The precious metals jumped today too but it looks like a huge trade in Silver took it and the other metals up in sympathy.

The month and quarter is over now and the bulls win again.  The S&P is up about 40 bips for the month and 7.2% for the quarter.  The S&P is up about 9% for the year also.

Time to look ahead.  Oct, Nov, and Dec are what’s left.

Big things to think about:

  • November mid-term elections
  • Expected Fed hike in December
  • Trade issues, specifically the China-US component
  • Earnings season (PepsiCo announces Tuesday, banks start announcing Oct 12)

The market has been resilient with respect to all negatives so investors are looking forward at these major risks with high confidence.

Whether that’s dangerous group-think or practical common sense is my question.

How much more upside is there if everything comes up roses?

And of course, what about the converse?

See you Monday, have a great weekend,