The Zigmont Report (Recap for 2/15/19)

Mike Zigmont

Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide.  Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.

No news, no problem.  It’s the same old, same old in US equity markets.  The headlines were uninteresting and the bulls controlled the tape and the flow was light (91%).  I guess there was a news item today.  President Trump said that the trade talks were going well, better than ever.  The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, stated that the negotiations made an important step.

Is it just me or have we seen/heard a dozen different announcements about how well trade talks are going in last four weeks, with each announcement lifting equities?

There’s so much upside cooked into equities by the positive trade blurbs, that I think if/when a deal is announced, it’ll probably be a pretty significant sell-the-news event.

Who knows though?  Bank of America is arguing that a real trade deal, whatever that is, could send the S&P higher by 5-10 percent.

Anything’s possible.  Valuations are inflating again.  How high will they climb?

I have no clue.  The market has fully returned to the psychological state of before the scare.  Risk schmisk.  Just buy stocks because the always go up.

I thought it was crazy last year.  I think it’s twice as crazy now.  But here we are.  The momentum play higher is happening on light volume and it feels like a game of musical chairs under the hood.

Have a great 3-day weekend.  Markets are closed Monday.  See you Tuesday.