Mike Zigmont Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business

since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.

The opinions expressed below are my own

5 for 5. US equity futures were down small before the open and the S&P opened down small as well. The selloff lasted for the morning and we ticked positive from lunch on. Capital flow was about average at 103%. News today was of the trivial variety.

If there’s one vibe building out there, it’s a borderline mania for stocks. Fear of missing out is becoming an investing motivation versus an amusing offhand remark.

The fact that the S&P is up 2.75% already this year has strategists, analysts, and technicians scrambling. The calendar-driven researchers are pointing out that when the S&P goes up more than 2% in the first 5 days of the year, the equity market usually returns 20-plus percent for that year.

There are many other calendar-based return studies that look at other things but spit out incredibly bullish predictions.

I think they’re mostly garbage….but that isn’t what’s important. What’s important is that people are *

finding justifications

* to get long and those justifications aren’t robust. Any and all reasons to get long are good enough to drive behavior.

I have no ability to predict the end of this rally because I have no feel for the tolerance of the market right now. Optimism is bulletproof and building.

I find this silly. I think the market is way out over its skis. Is it going to come to its senses soon or

in 6 months

? That’s the rub. See you

tomorrow

,

-Mike