Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business
since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
Happy Halloween. October finished with a final (small) treat for the bulls. The S&P gained on the session. For the month, S&P climbed 2.2% and the index is up 15% YTD…both those numbers exclude dividends.
News for the day was uninteresting again. Capital flow was a bit elevated at 113%. Earnings continue to beat (mostly) and the overall narrative of earnings season is a good one. There are some awful and high profile misses happening, Under Armour was the notable one today (UA was off 24% today). The effects of these misses remain isolated to the individual stocks though. It doesn’t look like that will change either.
We’ve two months to go until year-end and there’s no reason to believe that the sentiment of the market is about to change. Maybe the bull takes a breather. Maybe it doesn’t. Barring a surprise war, there doesn’t appear to be any risk to the US equity market over the remainder of the year.
Let’s look ahead for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow
:- We get the next Fed decision * No change to rates is expected. The tapering process will be the focus of the market but it’s unlikely anything changes on that front….
- We also get October ADP (196k est vs 135k prior) * Probably not going to matter. Only a 10 sigma surprise would affect the tape.
Friday
:- October nonfarm payrolls (310k vs -33k prior) * Significant hurricane distortions expected. Probably not going to affect the tape either.
Throughout the week we’ll keep seeing earnings too. Like other data this week, it’s doubtful this changes the narrative of the season.
So despite a healthy dose of data and policy on the horizon, sentiment is on rails.
See youtomorrow
,-Mike
