Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business
since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
5 for 5. US equity futures were down small before the open and the S&P opened down small as well. The selloff lasted for the morning and we ticked positive from lunch on. Capital flow was about average at 103%. News today was of the trivial variety.
If there’s one vibe building out there, it’s a borderline mania for stocks. Fear of missing out is becoming an investing motivation versus an amusing offhand remark.
The fact that the S&P is up 2.75% already this year has strategists, analysts, and technicians scrambling. The calendar-driven researchers are pointing out that when the S&P goes up more than 2% in the first 5 days of the year, the equity market usually returns 20-plus percent for that year.
There are many other calendar-based return studies that look at other things but spit out incredibly bullish predictions.
I think they’re mostly garbage….but that isn’t what’s important. What’s important is that people are *finding justifications
* to get long and those justifications aren’t robust. Any and all reasons to get long are good enough to drive behavior.I have no ability to predict the end of this rally because I have no feel for the tolerance of the market right now. Optimism is bulletproof and building.
I find this silly. I think the market is way out over its skis. Is it going to come to its senses soon orin 6 months
? That’s the rub. See youtomorrow
,-Mike